Circle of Competence

"Its not competence if you don't know its edge" - Charlie Munger

One of the least talked about subjects in investing is an investor's circle of competence. I believe every investor should have a thorough understanding of his/her area of competence if there is any hope of besting the market.

I can speak from personal experience: when I started investing in 2000, I was bitten by the telecon industry. Looking back, I realize I had no business investing in companies like JDSU, Nortel Network and other dotcom darlings of the day. I had no idea of what these companies did, how did they make money and what their future prospects looked like. I was lucky that I did not invest (read "bet") a lot of money. Nevertheless, it was a lesson worth learning in spite of the hefty tuition bill :)

In one sense, "circle of competence" forces you to "buy what you know" - a concept put forth by investing legend, Peter Lynch. Although it is commonly misunderstood as buying what you are "familiar" with, it goes beyond just familiarity. What Lynch meant was that if you work in the health care industry and see a particular drug or device being prescribed more than the others, you have an advantage over others and could use this to investigate the company behind that product. And after your analysis, if you find an opportunity, go ahead and buy it. This is different from going to the local mall and seeing a line at the GAP store and buying the GAP stock based on this visit. The line could be due to several reasons - a slow cashier, cash register down or something else that has nothing to do with the latest design of khakis at GAP.

With that said, one can and should increase his or her circle of competence. It is amazing to see that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are still learning and increasing their circle after decades of experience. Not to mention, both of them are over 70 years old!

Berkshire Hathaway's recent purchases in the railroad industry gives us an insight into the minds of these uber-investors. Here is an excerpt from Charlie Munger's talk at the 2007 Wesco shareholder's meeting...

Railroads – now that’s an example of changing our minds. Warren and I have hated railroads our entire life. They’re capital-intensive, heavily unionized, with some make-work rules, heavily regulated, and long competed with a comparative disadvantage vs. the trucking industry, which has a very efficient method of propulsion (diesel engines) and uses free public roads. Railroads have long been a terrible business and have been lousy for investors.

We did finally change our minds and invested. We threw out our paradigms, but did it too late. We should have done it two years ago, but we were too stupid to do it at the most ideal time.

There’s a German saying: Man is too soon old and too late smart. We were too late smart. We finally realized that railroads now have a huge competitive advantage, with double stacked railcars, guided by computers, moving more and more production from China, etc. They have a big advantage over truckers in huge classes of business.

Bill Gates figured this out years before us – he invested in a Canadian railroad and made eight hundred percent. Maybe Gates should manage Berkshire’s money. [Laughter] This is a good example of how hard it is to change one’s mind and change entrenched thinking, but at last we did change.

The world changed and, way too slowly, we recognized this.

Source: Whitney Tilson's Wesco meeting notes

Margin of Safety

According to Warren Buffett, the two rules of investing are:

• Rule No. 1: Never lose money
• Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1

As an individual investor who started investing just before the dot com bust, I have learned this the hard way but now these tenets are instilled in me.

Warren Buffett’s teacher and father of value investing, Ben Graham, first coined the "margin of safety" expression in his classic text, The Intelligent Investor. In investing, trends come and go all the time. However, these words have stood the test of time. Even today, Warren Buffett calls them "the three most important words in all of investing."

The beauty of value investing is in its simplicity. All one has to do is:

1. Calculate the intrinsic value of a company.
2. Buy the stock if it can purchased at a suitable margin of safety compared to its intrinsic value.
3. Wait for the market to correct the stock price.
   

[The intrinsic value of an investment is determined by discounting the future cash flows of an investment by an appropriate interest rate. I personally use DCF analysis.]

While this approach is painfully simple, it is difficult to follow. The main reason is that since every investor has to make assumptions to calculate this value, the estimates can vary widely. This is where margin of safety comes in. Ben Graham used a 33% (one-third) margin of safety compared to the book value when looking for potential investments. Other value investors have a different hurdle rate. The bottom line is: the wider the margin of safety, the better it is. To paraphrase Buffett, “You build a bridge that can withstand 30,000 ton trucks but insist that only 10,000 ton trucks drive on it”.

The more I thought about this, the more it made sense. As an engineer designing complex technical solutions, I was using margin of safety everyday. When working on industrial applications, I would scale up the pilot test data to design production scale systems incorporating a safety factor or scale-up factor: this is exactly the concept of margin of safety!

Margin of safety protects us from the whims of the market and minimizes the risk of permanent loss of capital. There are two main benefits:

1. Lets say you made an investment in a company that was selling at a 40% margin of safety. Suppose there is a change in the company’s business or if your assumptions were not as accurate, and the new margin of safety is 20%. You are still protected and can wait for your thesis to play out.
2. The other advantage is the higher upside potential. Suppose your original thesis was sound and you were able to purchase the company at a 40% discount. Just because the market restores the company price to match its intrinsic value, your investment will have a 66% return!

Of course, having a disciplined strategy is easier said than done. Even if you apply a margin of safety in your purchase decision, any subsequent decrease in price may be difficult on your system. This is where your temperament comes in. Ideally, any change in price should be considered as an opportunity to buy, sell or hold that investment. In other words, look at it as if you were approaching it for the first time.

In the end, it takes discipline to apply the margin of safety and courage to stick with your investments when the gusts are blowing in your face.